Three Questions That Are High-Risk What-Ifs

Key Findings:

As the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues, there are three critical "what-ifs" that could negatively impact the situation and its outcomes.

First, there is the possibility that Israel might not actually carry out a full military operation to remove Hamas from Gaza. Despite the mobilization of 360,000 troops and ongoing airstrikes, Israel has yet to launch the expected ground operation, with some reports suggesting hesitation from Prime Minister Netanyahu and certain cabinet members. U.S. officials have expressed concerns over the lack of a clear exit strategy or post-operation plan, which could complicate Israel’s military objectives.

If the operation devolves into a prolonged air campaign or small-scale special forces actions without a decisive victory, Hamas could remain in control of Gaza, undermining the mission's objectives. Additionally, a ground operation that turns into a prolonged and difficult urban warfare campaign could drain Israeli resources and lead to high casualties, further complicating efforts to establish a post-Hamas governance structure.

The second critical scenario involves the potential collapse or incapacity of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to take control of Gaza following Israel’s military success. The PA, which once administered Gaza before Hamas took power in 2007, is in a weakened state, both politically and institutionally. Prior to October 7, the PA was already deeply unpopular, with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas facing significant internal criticism. 

With ongoing violence in the West Bank and the PA’s perceived lack of leadership, it’s uncertain whether the PA will be able to return to Gaza, if Hamas is removed. If the PA is unable or unwilling to govern Gaza, Israel may find itself without a political partner to stabilize the region, rendering the military operation futile and potentially leading to further chaos in Gaza.

Lastly, there is the possibility that the current Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, may not be able to weather the political storm in the aftermath of the conflict. Public dissatisfaction with Netanyahu has been high, with widespread calls for his resignation. However, the political system in Israel makes it difficult to oust a sitting prime minister without a clear path for replacement. The current coalition is deeply divided, and Netanyahu’s reluctance to step down or dissolve the government could result in a prolonged political crisis. If Netanyahu's government remains in power, it could face intense pressure both domestically and internationally, leading to further instability within Israel. This could prolong the crisis, hindering any efforts at national reconciliation or rebuilding the country after the current conflict.