The Collapse of the Palestinian Authority The Scenario Israel Must Avoid

Key Findings:

The potential collapse of the Palestinian Authority (PA) presents a profound challenge to both the Israeli-Palestinian relationship and broader regional stability. The ongoing policies of the Israeli government, especially under the influence of ministers like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, have significantly weakened the PA, exacerbating tensions and diminishing the prospects for peace. If the PA collapses, Israel could face a multifaceted crisis:

(1) Security Threats: The collapse could lead to a breakdown in security cooperation between Israel and the PA, which has been a cornerstone of relative stability. This might result in tens of thousands of armed PA security forces potentially turning against Israel, joining militant groups, or causing a widespread popular uprising. Israel would then be forced to manage security across the West Bank, protect settlements, and deal with the risk of escalations along the Jordanian border.

(2) International and Diplomatic Fallout: The collapse of the PA could signify the end of the Oslo Accords and could severely damage Israel's relations with moderate Arab states, potentially reversing normalization efforts. The international community, particularly the United States and European nations, would likely view this as a failure of the peace process, leading to increased diplomatic isolation for Israel.

(3) Economic and Administrative Burdens: Should the PA collapse, Israel would have to assume responsibility for the governance and daily needs of Palestinians in the West Bank. This would entail significant financial burdens, including managing the PA's debts and sustaining basic services, which could strain Israel's economy.

(4) Regional Instability: The weakening or collapse of the PA could embolden Hamas and other Islamic militant groups, as well as Iran and Hezbollah, to intensify their activities against Israel. The security situation could deteriorate rapidly, leading to increased violence not only in the West Bank but potentially spreading to other fronts, including East Jerusalem and even within Israel's own borders.

Recommendations:

To prevent the catastrophic consequences of the PA's collapse, efforts should be made to strengthen its governance and security capabilities. This includes ensuring financial stability, maintaining security cooperation, and refraining from policies that further undermine its authority.

Renewed diplomatic efforts should be made to support the PA and resume negotiations aimed at a peaceful resolution. International actors, including the United States and European Union, should be engaged to help stabilize the situation and prevent the collapse of the PA.

Concurrently, Israel should focus on dismantling the threats posed by extremist groups like Hamas, without undermining the PA, which serves as a bulwark against the spread of militancy in the region.