Starting From the Ground Up U.S. Policy Options for Post-Hamas Gaza

Key Findings:

The post-war planning for Gaza, outlined in this paper, is driven by three overarching objectives agreed upon by key parties:

(1) No Hamas Control or Military Capabilities in Gaza: The elimination of Hamas’s ability to govern or operate militarily in Gaza is central. This would involve the complete disarmament and removal of Hamas, ensuring that it can no longer serve as a military threat or a political force in Gaza.

(2) Avoiding a Post-Hamas Power Vacuum: The risk of a vacuum in governance following Hamas's removal must be addressed to prevent chaos or the rise of other militant groups. Without a viable governing body, Gaza risks falling into anarchy, which would undermine stability and regional security.

(3) No Long-Term Israeli Military Occupation: The plan seeks to avoid a prolonged Israeli military presence in Gaza, which could lead to a de facto occupation. A long-term occupation would burden Israel with the governance and service provision in Gaza, contrary to Israeli objectives and international legal concerns.

These principles must be implemented within the context of a broader goal: unifying the Palestinian polity under a single leadership. The divide between Gaza, controlled by Hamas, and the West Bank, led by the Palestinian Authority (PA), has harmed both Palestinian governance and efforts toward a peaceful resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A successful post-war plan for Gaza must therefore not only address the immediate situation in Gaza but also lay the groundwork for a broader resolution involving the West Bank.

Benefits for Israel and International Diplomacy

For Israel, the proposal offers diplomatic advantages. By demonstrating flexibility regarding the PA’s future role in Gaza, Israel could stave off international pressure to prematurely end its military campaign. Moreover, this approach would provide legitimacy to Israel’s broader goal of eliminating Hamas through diplomatic, economic, and military means. It would also allow Israel to form an international and regional coalition to help stabilize Gaza, while addressing accusations under international law that tie Israel’s military presence in Gaza to responsibilities for service provision.

Opportunity for Regional Involvement and U.S. Leadership

The ongoing conflict has created an unprecedented opportunity to involve Arab states in stabilizing Gaza. Regional players, such as Egypt and Jordan, are motivated by fears of spillover effects from Gaza, which could affect their domestic stability. However, their participation would require proper incentives, guarantees, and a long-term political framework addressing the broader Israeli-Palestinian issues. The United States would play a crucial role in leading the formation of international and regional coalitions. It would oversee the implementation and monitoring of agreements, secure Israeli trust, and help rehabilitate the PA to take on a more significant role in governing Gaza.

Interim Phase: The First 3-5 Years Post-Conflict

The post-war plan outlines a critical interim phase for Gaza, designed to bridge the gap between the immediate cessation of hostilities and a longer-term resolution. This phase, lasting 3-5 years, would integrate local, regional, and international actors to oversee both security and civilian affairs.

End of the Interim Phase and Beyond

At the end of the interim phase, responsibility for governance would be handed over fully to the PA, which must include representatives from Gaza. The Palestinian Authority Security Forces (PASF) would take over security duties from the interim forces. A 1-2 year evaluation of PA performance would follow, at which point the possibility of Palestinian elections in both Gaza and the West Bank would be considered.