Preserving Order Out of the Syrian Chaos

Key Findings:

The rapid downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marks a significant regional shift, in which Israel played an indirect but pivotal role by undermining the Iranian axis of resistance. Israel’s successful targeting of Hezbollah's leadership, infrastructure, and command-control capabilities prevented the group from rallying to Assad's defense as it had in the past, leaving Syrian forces unprepared and ultimately leading to the regime's collapse. This development underscores both the opportunities and challenges that now face Israel, particularly in managing the aftermath to avoid regional destabilization.

The most notable gain from Assad's fall is the diminishing of Iranian influence in Syria, a major strategic victory for Israel. However, this upheaval presents substantial risks, particularly the potential for instability to spill into neighboring Jordan. With a history of Islamist extremism and a Sunni Islamist parliamentary bloc, Jordan now faces heightened threats from the rise of Sunni Islamist groups in Syria, which could inspire local movements aiming to destabilize the Hashemite monarchy. Given the porous and lightly defended Israeli-Jordanian border, maintaining Jordanian stability emerges as one of Israel’s top strategic imperatives.

In navigating this landscape, Israel must adopt a stabilization-focused approach. This entails exercising restraint in its operations near Jordan’s border, coordinating closely with Jordanian authorities, and ensuring that actions within Syria do not inadvertently exacerbate volatility. Similarly, any moves toward annexation or extending sovereignty in the West Bank should be avoided, as these could ignite widespread unrest within Jordan, jeopardizing bilateral security cooperation and creating openings for Iranian or Sunni jihadist influence.

In Lebanon, preserving the fragile ceasefire is crucial. While enforcing boundaries is necessary, Israel should prioritize the use of the newly established U.S.-led tripartite mechanism for addressing violations, intervening militarily only as a last resort. This measured approach would allow the Lebanese Armed Forces and government to strengthen their positions, reducing the likelihood of escalation.

Finally, Israel must collaborate with the United States to address Turkey's actions in northern Syria. President ErdoÄŸan’s ambitions to exploit the situation by targeting Kurdish enclaves risks prolonging conflict, drawing in additional jihadi groups, and destabilizing the region further. Israel has leverage through its role in shaping the post-Gaza landscape and should use this to align Turkish actions with broader stabilization goals.

While Israel must take advantage of the current vacuum in Syria to neutralize immediate threats, the long-term focus should be on promoting regional stability, mitigating risks to neighboring states, and ensuring that Assad’s fall leads to order rather than prolonged chaos.