Post-Bibi Aligning two-state hopes with Israeli fears after 7 October

Key Findings:

Michael Rubin of Labour Friends of Israel investigates the next steps awaiting Israel following the ongoing 2024 Israel-Hamas war. When thinking of ‘the day after’, Rubin provides context of the current climate, and attempts to answer this question: How could it be possible to normalize a two-state solution alongside the fears of the Israeli population?

Rubin argues for the hope of the establishment of a Palestinian state (a two-state solution) in order to create a real and lasting opportunity for security in the region. A Palestinian state that is aligned with moderate Arab leaders and not influenced by Iran or Hamas will ultimately lead to a higher sense of security in the country. However, after the events of 7 October, it has become more difficult for Israelis to trust in any Palestinian actor to control territory on its borders.

Rubin discusses re-election as an imminent next step that will shape the country’s future. The Israeli public’s trauma following 7 October  has created “two conflicting trends”-- a decline in support for Netanyahu, alongside a public demand for the threats leading to the attack be eradicated. 

Rubin argues that in order for the idea of a two-state solution to gain political traction, it must be framed to the Israeli public as a necessary step in a long-game effort for a true sense of security in the region. He states, “The hope for two-state advocates rests with Israelis’ determination that there is no going back to ‘conflict management’, pushing the Palestinian question back on top of the agenda”.  Following 7 October, Israelis are not likely to align with any decisions that they believe would make them more vulnerable, and thus, they have to understand and believe that it won’t. 

The author concludes by stating that the realization of two states requires action from both parties, and that must not be overlooked.