Moving Beyond Cyber-Enabled Influence Operations

Key Findings:

This publication examines the role of offensive cyber operations (OCOs), particularly ransomware, in strategic influence operations. OCOs are increasingly used to shape perceptions and influence decision-making processes in target states. These operations can introduce false narratives or disrupt critical services, leading to a loss of trust in government institutions.

Ransomware in particular (beyond its immediate disruptive effects) serves as a tool for coercion and narrative control. By forcing the target to respond publicly, it can draw attention to specific issues or create a perception of vulnerability, aligning with the broader goals of influence operations.

The Albanian Case:

In Albania, a ransomware attack targeted the government’s e-services in 2022, causing significant disruption. This incident was widely attributed to Iran and led to Albania severing diplomatic ties with Tehran. The attack managed to undermine state functions and international relationships. The international community's response highlighted the importance of diplomatic and cyber resilience in countering such threats.

The Israeli Case:

Israel has faced numerous cyber-attacks attributed to Iranian actors. The Israeli approach to these threats includes enhancing cyber defenses and improving attribution capabilities. Israel's strategy has evolved to focus on resilience by countering the malign narratives of the cyber-attacks and mitigating their impact.

Conclusions: 

OCOs are effective in advancing influence operations by forcing the targeted state to respond, often publicly, to the cyber incidents. This response can validate the attacker’s narrative or create a sense of instability. The versatility of OCOs allows them to be tailored to various strategic objectives, ranging from specific political goals to broader aims like social destabilization.

The article highlights the growing integration of cyber tools in statecraft, where OCOs serve not just to damage or disable but to influence and control the information environment.