Military Might and Demographic Destiny

Key Findings:

The consequences of a growing population are weighed against other factors instrumental to a country’s success when in its infancy. Fluctuations in population sizes, birth rates, and displacement patterns – all of which are classified under the term ‘demographics’ – are highly consequential as well, though often overlooked. In the case of Israel, these demographics may have shaped the country’s trajectory more than military power. The influence of Hasidic, Arab-Israeli, and Palestinian demographics on Israeli society are referenced as main examples. 

The author defines what makes a country powerful, and finds a  common trend among them – strong militaries that secure a regime. Ben Gurion’s application of this model to the creation of Israel is outlined, where military power was prioritized over diplomacy – and successfully so given various victories against Egypt and Syria. However, the author maintains that with regard to Palestine, military force “has failed to change the basic realities and variables of the conflict. The Palestinian problem is not going away.” He implies where military power was once enough, it may no longer be.

The author calls for a shift in attention from “military might” to demographics. He principally argues that a military which fights external enemies is redundant if security is threatened internally. Morris focuses on Israel’s current demographic challenges – all of which constitute poorly integrated, expanding populations. He suggests three concrete solutions to facilitate their integration:

1. Education and national service legislation reform for the Haredi population.
 Because this rapidly-growing population does not contribute economically nor to the military, it adds great stress to the secular population. Legislation be implemented to urge their schools to teach them “the basic intellectual disciplines - math, science, English and history” and that the subsidies that enable them to have large families be denied if their men continue to remain outside of the labor force. It is recommended that the 18-20 year old age group join the military, or civilian bureaucracies/local government if there is refusal. 

2. Greater investment into Arab-Israeli schools and neighborhoods. Arab-Israelis make up one-fifth of Israel today, and their contribution to the labor force should reflect this. Investment would facilitate lowering crime rates and creating opportunities for  this population to become a greater economic asset. Investment in education could include the implementation of teach-training programs to raise the level of school systems. 

3. Greater investment into development projects and/or easing movement restrictions on the growing Palestinian population. He emphasizes that there is no easy answer for the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but implementing these suggestions could aid in easing tensions between the two groups, and perhaps set them on a path for a better, more peaceful future.