Israeli Politics is Undergoing Tectonic Change

Key Findings:

The political landscape in Israel is undergoing a significant transformation, which has largely gone unnoticed. The traditional division between left and right based on a peace process with the Palestinians and territorial compromise is becoming irrelevant in the absence of any realistic option. Instead, a new definition of the right is emerging, characterized by an illiberal populist democracy that empowers the governing Jewish majority without constraints. On the other hand, the opposition left continues to advocate for a liberal democracy that upholds human and civil rights, judicial review, and institutional independence.

This shift in Israeli politics has implications for the understanding of right-wing ideology. It is a misconception to assume that those who were previously on the right, based on the issue of Eretz Yisrael, automatically align with the new definition of the right as populist vs. liberal democracy. 

Benjamin Netanyahu's success can be attributed to his ability to reconcile Israel's control over the West Bank with the benefits of being a Western democracy. The appeal of figures like Bibi was rooted in their promise to maintain Israel as a liberal democracy aligned with the West, despite the ongoing occupation of the West Bank and political subjugation of Palestinians.

However, the current political upheaval suggests a growing realization among Israelis that proponents of judicial reform genuinely intend to undermine liberal democratic norms. This realization has prompted many people, including supporters of the current government, to reevaluate their beliefs and reaffirm their support for some form of liberal democracy.

The ongoing demonstrations across Israel reflect a process of self-clarification, as more individuals come to understand the genuine intent behind the proposed judicial reform. While the hardline reform enjoys support from groups such as Haredim, Religious Zionists, and Likud populists, it does not represent a majority of the electorate. A Madad.com survey (supervised by Camille Fuchs) indicates that 45% of center-right voters (80% of whom previously supported judicial reform) now believe it does more harm than good.

Political systems, like physical and chemical systems, tend to return to equilibrium. This suggests that the current disequilibrium in the Israeli political system may eventually be resolved. However, the nature of this equilibrium and the future direction of Israeli politics remain uncertain as the redefinition of the right and the renegotiation of political divisions continue to unfold.