Israel is a World Power

Key Findings:

Israel has transformed over the years. In 1950 it had only 1.2 million people, and today it approaches 10 million. It has one of the highest fertility rates among developed nations and has experienced substantial GDP growth, approaching half a trillion dollars. Historically, Israel was perceived as more powerful and influential than it actually was. It carried symbolic weight, both as a beacon of democracy and a scapegoat for various global issues.

This essay discusses the evolving geopolitical status of Israel as it celebrates its 75th birthday, focusing on its increasing power and the strategic options it must consider.

Economic Shifts: Israel has shifted from energy dependence to becoming a significant natural gas exporter. It also started exporting oil in recent years.

Military Strength: Israel's military capabilities have grown significantly since its early days. It has advanced technology, intelligence agencies like Mossad, and military cooperation with various nations.

Diplomatic Changes: Israel's diplomatic landscape has changed, highlighted by the Abraham Accords in 2020. Many Arab nations now view Israel as a valuable partner for security and diplomacy.

Internal Cohesion: Israel's power is, in large part, derived from internal cohesion. Its ability to unite and find common ground amidst diverse opinions and backgrounds is a crucial strength.

Israel currently faces political challenges, especially concerning judicial reform. These challenges highlight the importance of maintaining political stability. However, contemporary Israel has strategic options that were previously unthinkable. These options can be categorized into three approaches: squandering power, enhanced incrementalism, and radical reorientation.

(1) Squandering Power: No matter how the judicial reform crisis is resolved, it is a painful reminder that the fratricidal political tendencies that undid ancient Israel are not entirely a thing of the past. Even if the resolution to the crisis comes swiftly and peacefully, it is also a necessary reminder that power can beget not just confidence but overconfidence, leading to political, diplomatic, economic, and military stumbles and long-term decline.

(2) Enhanced Incrementalism: This approach focuses on gradual shifts in balance of power, such as continued sanctions against Iran, deepening diplomatic and economic ties, and long-term agreements with Palestinians.

(3) Radical Reorientation: This approach emphasizes preparing for potential crises by boosting military capabilities, making an impression through consistent success, and surprising the world with bold, innovative actions.

Author recommendations: 

Israel should prepare for scenarios where it may be involved in long wars, particularly with Iran and its proxies, without relying on external help. Potential challenges involve Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Iran, and nuclear proliferation.

Israel should continue to impress through success. Its diplomatic achievements are rooted not in concessions, but in its proven ability to achieve results.

While Israel is currently experiencing a political crisis, history suggests that nations tend to rebound from such crises. The author predicts that Israel will be no different.

Israel should maintain its adherence democratic values and not adopt a degraded realpolitik approach, as self-respect is a strategic asset.

Israel must harness internal cohesion. Israel's various "tribes" should work together for the benefit of the country. Alienating any group could weaken the nation.

Israel must consider how to thrive in a world where democratic values may not be as strongly defended by Western nations such as the United States.

Israel’s strategic choices should reflect the evolving global order, where alliances and partnerships may shift.

Israel must embrace the future and adapt to a changing world, harness its newfound power, and continue to navigate complex geopolitical terrain while staying true to its democratic values. Success will require boldness, preparedness, and the ability to surprise the world.