Dr. Israel and Mr. Judea

Key Findings:

This Koplow Column outlines a stark duality in Israel’s current challenges, contrasting its military strength and external effectiveness during the Israel-Gaza war with significant internal instability and governance crises. This tension places the country at a critical juncture on two fronts: restoring deterrence against external threats while addressing mounting domestic anarchy.

(1) Military Strength: A Demonstration of External Power

The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut demonstrates Israel's strategic and operational reach. By striking leaders of Iran-backed proxies, Israel sends a powerful deterrent message to Tehran, aiming to counter the perception that it is weakened or on the brink of collapse. The symbolic timing of Haniyeh’s killing—during an Iranian state ceremony—was designed to disrupt Iranian narratives of dominance and showcase Israel’s ability to penetrate deeply into enemy territory.

While these actions may weaken Hamas and Hezbollah, they are primarily a message to Iran, aiming to re-establish deterrence amid rising regional tensions and increased Iranian aggression. The strikes carry risks, such as provoking retaliation by Iran or its proxies and further stalling hostage negotiations with Hamas, as Sinwar (eliminated by the IDF on 16 October 2024) is now likely to prioritize retribution over dialogue.

The assassinations are effective in the short term but lack a broader strategy. Israel’s next steps must go beyond targeting individual leaders to addressing systemic threats from Iran, Hezbollah, and their proxies. Gaza, while urgent, is increasingly viewed as a peripheral issue compared to the broader Iranian threat and the challenge of maintaining deterrence on multiple fronts.

(2) Internal Weakness: Populist Anarchy and Erosion of Governance

On Monday, 29 July 2024, mobs of reservists, far-right activists, and politicians stormed IDF bases to prevent the arrests of soldiers accused of detainee abuse. This act represents a rejection of state authority and rule of law, driven by political outrage over perceived government overreach. The immediate reaction of right-wing leaders, who justified the actions instead of condemning them, reflects a dangerous normalization of lawlessness.

The far-right’s long-standing defiance of state authority, particularly in the West Bank, has permeated Israel’s domestic politics. Politicians like National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir openly advocate for differential treatment based on ideology, thereby eroding democratic norms. Unchecked misconduct (such as settler violence in the West Bank or soldiers filming property destruction in Gaza) reinforces a culture of impunity. During the events of Monday, soldiers and politicians acted as vigilantes against their own military leadership.

When exceptions to the rules become normalized, they erode the foundation of democratic governance. The right-wing’s insistence on shielding soldiers from accountability undermines the rule of law, and replaces it with a culture of selective enforcement and political favoritism.

(3) The Tipping Point: Dual Crises and Mutual Impacts

Israel’s assassinations are a reminder of its military prowess, but deterrence is a long-term game that requires strategic vision. The growing strength of Iran and its proxies—amid shifting regional alliances—poses an existential challenge that demands consistent and calibrated responses.

The rise of populist lawlessness and political defiance within Israel weakens its internal cohesion and ability to respond effectively to external threats. The events of Monday highlight how internal anarchy threatens the IDF’s credibility and undermines trust in democratic institutions. Without addressing this, Israel risks its internal disarray complicating or even compromising its external campaigns.

Israel’s external and internal challenges are deeply intertwined. Effective military deterrence requires national unity and a strong, law-abiding governance framework. Allowing domestic anarchy to continue unchecked will embolden external adversaries and make it harder for Israel to navigate complex geopolitical landscapes.

A Crossroads for Israel

The duality of Israel’s capabilities and weaknesses has rarely been clearer. Externally, Israel has shown its ability to strike critical enemies and potentially reset regional dynamics. Internally, it faces a growing threat from within as rule of law and democratic norms are increasingly undermined by far-right impunity and political populism. Israel’s future depends on its ability to address these challenges in tandem to remain a cohesive and resilient state.