Bibi Is Still Up To His Old Tricks

Key Findings:

Benjamin Netanyahu’s long-standing approach to the Palestinian territories, particularly his policy of indirectly bolstering Hamas while weakening the Palestinian Authority (PA), was designed to avoid a political process that could lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state. Netanyahu’s government viewed Hamas’ control of Gaza as beneficial because it divided the Palestinian territories and made negotiations with the PA for a two-state solution less feasible. With Hamas in power, Israel could argue that there was no unified Palestinian leadership to negotiate with, thus stalling any political process that could lead to Palestinian statehood.

However, Hamas' weakening after the October 7 attacks and the IDF’s current military operations have dramatically shifted the situation. Hamas' governing capabilities in Gaza are likely coming to an end, yet Netanyahu’s reluctance to engage with the PA seems unchanged. This is problematic because the PA is widely viewed by the international community, including the U.S. and Arab states, as the only viable actor to assume control of Gaza post-Hamas. The Biden administration and other international stakeholders see the PA as crucial for stability and reconstruction in Gaza, but Netanyahu appears to be resisting this approach.

Netanyahu's strategy may lead to a major crisis when the military campaign in Gaza concludes. Without a clear plan for Gaza's future and a refusal to engage with the PA, Israel could find itself in a difficult situation, facing international pressure to resolve the governance of Gaza while lacking a strategy for doing so. Netanyahu's tendency to postpone decisions and avoid political processes may have worked in the past, but with Hamas’ demise, his unwillingness to involve the PA could result in a power vacuum and a diplomatic impasse, potentially leaving Israel with the responsibility for governing a destabilized Gaza.