A Changing Middle East The View from Israel

Key Findings:

1. Impact of the Abraham Accords

The Abraham Accords, which began with the UAE's normalization of relations with Israel in August 2020, represent a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern history. The normalization agreements with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have led to a dramatic expansion of ties across multiple sectors, including energy, tourism, medicine, and cybersecurity. Freilich notes that the UAE, in particular, has embraced a proactive approach to establishing robust relations with Israel. 

The accords signify a fundamental shift in Arab acceptance of Israel's existence, previously constrained by the Palestinian issue. Freilich emphasizes that the normalization occurred despite ongoing tensions between Israel and the Palestinians, challenging the long-held notion that such progress was contingent upon resolving the Palestinian conflict.

Saudi Arabia’s implicit approval of the Accords and recognition of Israel's legitimacy is a significant step toward broader regional normalization. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's acknowledgment of Israel's right to exist is a watershed moment, because normalization with Saudi Arabia could follow depending upon the political landscape.

2. Iran and Regional Security

While many analysts propose a de facto alliance between Israel and Gulf Arab states to counter Iran's influence, Freilich suggests that the term "strategic cooperation" is more appropriate. This cooperation includes potential military coordination but is tempered by the Gulf states' reluctance to provoke Iranian retaliation. A growing fear of U.S. disengagement from the Middle East is complicating relationships among regional players. Despite the historical reliance on American security guarantees, both Gulf states and Israel now express skepticism regarding the U.S. commitment to their security, particularly in light of the Biden administration’s efforts to negotiate with Iran.

3. Cybersecurity Challenges

Israel faces significant cyber threats primarily from Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas, but also from Russia and China. Despite a robust defense infrastructure that has so far prevented major successful attacks on critical military and governmental institutions, the risk remains high, particularly for private sector targets.

Conversely, Israel has emerged as a global leader in both commercial and military cyber capabilities, bolstered by a comprehensive educational framework that fosters cyber expertise from a young age. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) play a crucial role as a training center, producing a skilled cyber workforce.

4. Changing Political Landscape

The current Israeli coalition government, characterized by an unlikely alliance of hard-left, hard-right, and Arab parties, seeks to establish a stable governance framework while avoiding the return of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This coalition aims to unify various factions while navigating the complex Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Freilich believes that President Biden maintains a strong affinity for Israel but must contend with increasing criticism from within his party regarding Israel’s policies. The new Israeli government recognizes the importance of mending ties with the Biden administration and is striving to cultivate a more constructive dialogue regarding shared security concerns, especially regarding Iran.

5. Prospects for Peace and Security

While Israel enjoys greater regional acceptance and military strength than ever before, the existential threat posed by a nuclear-capable Iran looms large. Should Iran achieve nuclear capability, it could fundamentally alter the strategic landscape, as nuclear weapons would enhance Iran's influence in regional conflicts.

There is the risk that Israel may find itself isolated, akin to past confrontations over Iranian nuclear facilities. Freilich emphasizes the necessity of diplomatic avenues to address Iran’s nuclear ambitions, although he acknowledges a prevailing consensus in Israel that Iran must not be permitted to acquire nuclear weapons.

Freilich expresses concern that both Israel and the Palestinians are nearing a critical juncture regarding the feasibility of a two-state solution. He warns that without decisive action, the opportunity for a Palestinian state may be lost, threatening Israel's identity as a Jewish state and the long-term stability of the region