What's at Stake for Israel in Syria

Key Findings:

The recent upheaval in Syria, marked by the radical Sunni group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) capturing Aleppo and other northwestern territories, has significantly altered the dynamics of the region. While these events weaken Assad's regime and by extension Iran’s influence in Syria, the broader implications for Israel are far from straightforward. The situation demands a nuanced approach due to the intricate web of competing interests and risks.

(1) Benefits of Assad’s Weakening

Assad has been a linchpin in Iran’s regional strategy, enabling weapons transfers and providing a strategic foothold for Iranian and Hezbollah operations. HTS advances force Iran to divert resources to support Assad’s regime, stretching its capabilities and weakening its ability to focus on Israel and other regional ambitions. Hezbollah’s focus is also diverted back to Syria, reducing immediate pressure on Israel.

A weakened Assad regime diminishes Iran's proxy network and disrupts the Syria-Hezbollah supply line. Israel’s ongoing operations in Syria to target weapons transfers and Iranian military assets complement these developments.

(2) Risks of Assad’s Decline

HTS, a former al-Qaida affiliate, poses significant threats as it solidifies control in northwest Syria. Unlike the more predictable Iranian-backed Assad regime, HTS and similar groups introduce instability and potential hostility toward Israel. Moreover, renewed fighting in Syria could escalate into broader chaos, creating a power vacuum and potentially leading to further regional destabilization.

(3) Complications from Turkey

Turkish support for the rebels increases Ankara’s influence in Syria, which could undermine Israeli security interests given Turkey’s hostility toward Israel under President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan. Turkey’s backing of Hamas and its recent trade embargo against Israel exacerbate these concerns. Increased Turkish involvement in Syria creates a delicate geopolitical challenge, as it emboldens an adversarial regional power on Israel’s periphery.

While there have been recent intelligence exchanges and discussions over Gaza ceasefires, ErdoÄŸan’s broader strategy makes collaboration tenuous. Israel must weigh Turkey’s role in Syria against its broader implications for regional stability.

(4) Impacts on Jordan

Jordan’s border with southern Syria is a potential flashpoint if instability spreads. Sunni jihadists in Syria pose a direct threat to Jordan’s security, especially given the kingdom’s existing challenges with Islamist movements and a volatile political environment. Plus. renewed conflict risks triggering another wave of Syrian refugees into Jordan, exacerbating its already severe economic struggles. The kingdom has worked to stabilize relations with Assad to curb issues like drug smuggling; these efforts are now at risk.

Jordan’s stability is crucial for Israel’s security. Any spillover instability or collapse of the Jordanian government would be catastrophic, making it imperative for Israel to support Jordan’s resilience.

(5) Israel’s Strategic Options

Some argue for aiding Assad, as his regime—despite its alignment with Iran—is a relatively predictable actor compared to jihadist groups. However, Assad’s reliance on Iran and Russia limits the feasibility of such an approach. HTS advances present an opportunity to weaken Assad and Iran, but this comes with risks of further instability and empowering Turkey’s position in Syria.

Israel must carefully navigate the interplay between Iran, Turkey, and Jordan, ensuring its actions in Syria align with broader regional stability goals. Coordination with the U.S. and other allies is essential, especially to contain Turkey’s ambitions and support Jordan’s stability.