Was the Coronavirus Year Really One of Deepening Polarization?

Key Findings:

2021 witnessed two national elections (in addition to the two elections held the previous year), a prime minister serving under the shadow of criminal indictments, and a global pandemic that burdened an already jittery political system with extraordinary health and economic challenges. All of these factors led to controversial decisions that amplified problems and disparities between different Israeli population groups. 

This paper investigates the question of whether the national mood conveyed by the media and the political system indeed reflects deepening polarization in Israeli society. It emphasizes rifts in three main areas – politics, religion, and the economy. The data show that polarization between different groups in Israeli society (across all three indicators) has worsened.

(A) Political Tension: Responses to self-definition questions in JPPI’s Pluralism Index indicate no substantial change over the last few years in the political identities of most Israelis (largely concentrated on the right of the political map). The outcomes of the past few rounds of elections, in which two blocs (neither enjoying a clear majority) could be identified, support the survey findings: right-wing parties are present in both blocs, and the political right still constitutes the majority. JPPI saw no meaningful movement in this sphere in the most recent elections, despite the effects of the past year.

The party map shows signs of deepening of polarization. Large, strong parties make it possible to create anchors, stabilize the system, and reduce political extortion. They also suggest an ability to unite and to attain a consensus. The fact that so many small parties exist in Israel and manage to pass the electoral threshold testifies to the prevailing rifts and the degree to which sectoral interests predominate. The last national election significantly strengthened the small parties – their number grew, as did the total number of mandates they garnered. While eight small parties participated in last 2020’s elections, reaching a total of 51 mandates, 2021’s elections saw the number of small parties increase to 13, with 73 mandates.

(B) Religious Tension: JPPI’s Pluralism Index points to how different Israeli populations perceive the degree to which various reference groups make a positive contribution to Israeli society. The Haredi community (along with the Arab community) regularly ranks at the bottom of the scale when other groups are asked about its societal contribution. The data over time show only a slight drop in the percentage of Israelis (outside of the Haredi and Torah religious sectors) who feel that the Haredim make a positive contribution to Israeli society. 

Notably, the number of people who feel that the Haredim make a positive contribution to Israeli society rose among those who identify as secular (20% of secular respondents felt the Haredi contribution to be positive, versus 14% in previous years), while the Liberal religious sector exhibited a substantial decline this year compared with the two previous years (from 72% to 58%). The coronavirus pandemic is shown to have had a negative impact on relations between different Israeli population groups, especially between Haredim and everyone else.

(C) Economic/Socioeconomic Tension: Although Israel’s inequality rates are still high compared with those of other developed countries, the dominant trend in recent years has been toward a gradual reduction of disparities. The coronavirus pandemic and the four lockdowns instituted to contain it, negatively affected most Israeli citizens. However the data show that those worst affected belong to populations that were weaker to begin with – young people, low-wage earners, women and Arabs. 

Early in the crisis, the Israeli government launched a number of programs intended to help affected workers and mitigate the damage, including unemployment benefits for workers on unpaid furlough, National Insurance Institute leniencies, and assistance for the self-employed. Since March 2021 the economy has seen a gradual reopening. Despite these efforts, unemployment remained high and aid organizations reported significant increases in numbers of those seeking assistance over Passover, particularly among those who hadn’t needed help before. Many citizens depleted their savings in order to survive the pandemic. It may be assumed that, after a few years in which Israel successfully strove to reduce disparities and economic inequality, the coronavirus year reversed that trend (at least in the short-term).