Don't Sacrifice a New Middle East for a New Gaza

Key Findings:

The aftermath of the October 7 attacks presents Israel with a clear moral and strategic decision, but many countries in the Middle East see the situation quite differently. Israelis are united in their belief that Hamas is a brutal and unrepentant terrorist organization, equal to to Islamist militant groups like ISIS. This strong moral stance stems from the horrific violence inflicted on Israeli civilians. However, as Israel continues its bombing campaign in Gaza, the rest of the Middle East increasingly views the situation with anger, and sees it as a double standard. There is growing resentment at Israel's conviction that Hamas should be viewed as entirely separate from its policies toward Palestinians.

While Arab leaders such as King Abdullah of Jordan and Egyptian President el-Sisi condemn Hamas, they also perceive Israel’s response to Hamas as overly harsh and containing no consideration for the broader Palestinian population. This anger is being reflected in regional reactions, with leaders refusing to meet with President Biden and voicing their discontent publicly. Many in the region do not condone Hamas’ actions but argue that Israel’s policies toward Palestinians and its current response to Gaza cannot be ignored in understanding the broader context.

This growing sense of injustice could complicate Israel's post-war plans for Gaza, which will require cooperation from regional actors like Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. These countries have little historical connection to Gaza, so they may be reluctant to involve themselves if Israel’s actions continue to be seen as unjustifiably detrimental to Palestinians. The situation risks reversing the diplomatic progress Israel made through the Abraham Accords and could delay or derail normalization with Saudi Arabia and other Arab states.

To mitigate this, Israel might need to adjust its rhetoric. Instead of framing Hamas solely as a genocidal entity equivalent to ISIS, Israel could take a firmer stance against Hamas while acknowledging the broader context of Palestinian suffering. Additionally, Israel must reconsider its approach to humanitarian aid. While the military campaign is essential to dismantling Hamas, Israel needs to ensure that the humanitarian crisis in Gaza does not spiral out of control. With dwindling supplies of food, water, and medicine, Israel must allow significant aid to enter Gaza and prevent the perception that it is punishing Palestinian civilians in the process.

While Israel’s position may be morally justifiable, it must recognize that accommodating regional perspectives is crucial if it hopes to secure post-Hamas stability and maintain its diplomatic and strategic goals in the Middle East.