China-UAE Space Cooperation Risk or Opportunity for Israel?

Key Findings:

The 2011 Wolf Amendment prohibits NASA from cooperating with China or Chinese-affiliated organizations, effectively severing space collaboration between the U.S. and China. However, this separation may be challenged indirectly through third-party partnerships, notably with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which maintains space collaborations with both the U.S. and China. Israel, having entered into space cooperation with the UAE following the Abraham Accords, could potentially face a dilemma. 

On one hand, collaboration with the UAE could unintentionally risk the transfer of sensitive Israeli or American space technologies to China—particularly given the UAE's deepening space ties with Beijing. Such a scenario could lead to friction between Israel and the U.S., especially if U.S.-origin technology or jointly developed systems are compromised. 

On the other hand, the UAE’s unique position as a bridge between competing space blocs presents a potential model for multipolar space cooperation. This precedent may offer Israel an opportunity to expand its role in global space research, diversify partnerships, and benefit from broader technological and strategic cooperation. However, Israel must carefully balance the advantages of such collaboration with the need to uphold U.S. export controls, avoid breaches of trust, and prevent strategic leakage to China.

While the US has begun adjusting its Gulf policy (seen in new security agreements with Bahrain and advanced talks with Saudi Arabia) these efforts have yet to fully extend to the UAE. Reduced US military presence and shifting policies (especially after the weak US response to the 2022 Houthi missile attacks) have driven the UAE to seek more predictable and stable partnerships, like that with China. Concerns over American disengagement have led the UAE and other Gulf states to begin to leverage their strategic importance to extract concessions and defense guarantees from Washington (especially in the wake of the Ukraine war and global energy crisis.) 

Meanwhile, UAE-China cooperation has surged across sectors, including trade, energy, technology, and space. Their growing security and military collaboration (such as construction at UAE ports and data-sharing concerns via companies like G42) has alarmed the US because of the overlap with sensitive American technologies. This tension peaked when the UAE withdrew from a lunar mission with China due to US regulatory concerns. At the same time, the UAE and Israel have deepened space collaboration under the Abraham Accords, launching joint satellite projects and working on green technologies — areas also targeted by China for strategic growth.

As UAE-China collaboration grows, especially in areas where Israel and the US are also active partners, Israel must carefully balance its strategic interests. This includes setting clear regulatory boundaries and maintaining alignment with US security expectations, especially as collaborations with Abraham Accord countries are expected to expand. The situation is a complex interplay of power, technology, and diplomacy shaping Gulf and regional alignments in the evolving global order.