Africa and the War in Gaza Analyzing Israel's Current Standing and Future Prospects in Africa

Key Findings:

The reactions of African countries to the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israel–Gaza war (Swords of Iron) reveal Israel’s complex and uneven diplomatic standing across the continent. While some African countries—mostly Christian-majority states in East, Central, and West Africa like Kenya, Ghana, Togo, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo—condemned Hamas’s actions early on, many others either maintained neutrality or criticized Israel. South Africa stood out as the most vocally anti-Israel non-Muslim country, recalling its diplomats, pushing for a genocide case at the International Court of Justice, and promoting a parliamentary motion to sever ties. Still, South Africa avoided completely cutting off relations due to economic ties and domestic political considerations.

UN voting patterns further illustrate this ambivalence. Most African countries supported ceasefire resolutions that did not condemn Hamas, including traditionally pro-Israel states like Kenya and Ghana. However, a number of countries such as Liberia, Malawi, and South Sudan either opposed the resolutions or abstained, signaling a degree of alignment with Israeli interests. Votes on amendments that explicitly condemned Hamas were somewhat more favorable to Israel, though even here, key allies like Nigeria shifted their stance over time. Notably, several African countries that could have helped tip votes in Israel’s favor abstained or were absent.

Israel’s position is weakest in Muslim-majority regions—especially North Africa, the Sahel, and the Horn of Africa—where strong Islamic identity and alignment with the Arab League play major roles. Additionally, countries in southern Africa like South Africa and Namibia remain critical due to lingering resentment over Israel’s past support for apartheid-era regimes and their ideological identification with the Palestinian cause. Conversely, Israel enjoys stronger support in Christian-majority countries that face threats from Islamist groups or where Evangelical movements have grown in influence. These countries often see Israel as a partner in security and counterterrorism.

Importantly, despite widespread criticism, no African country (Muslim or otherwise) has officially severed diplomatic ties with Israel during the current war, a stark contrast to the widespread diplomatic break-offs after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Even countries with strong pro-Palestinian rhetoric maintain bilateral relations, suggesting a pragmatic approach that separates symbolic support for Palestine from practical ties with Israel. The lack of pressure from influential Gulf states to cut ties has also contributed to this measured response.

This evolving landscape shows that while Israel still faces ideological and geopolitical challenges in Africa—compounded by the declining influence of the U.S. and the rise of China and Russia—it also retains significant opportunities. Targeted diplomatic engagement, especially with countries that share mutual security concerns or religious affinity, could help Israel solidify support, expand the legacy of the Abraham Accords, and influence voting behavior in international forums like the UN.